planning - 2026-03-12

Using tablets and smartphones as experimental tools in the physics classroom: effects on learning and motivation

Authors:Alice Gasparini, Florian Stern, Marine Delaval, Andreas Müller
Date:2026-03-11 16:47:32

According to the literature, mobile devices as experimental tools (MDET) can offer educational benefits by creating authentic, real-life contexts for physics learning, enhancing student motivation through the use of familiar technology, and supporting cognitive processes by providing multiple representations of phenomena. However, concerns have been raised about potential distractions and cognitive overload. Regarding these conflicting perspectives, few empirical studies on the impact of MDET in real classroom settings of regular, full-length physics courses are available, focusing on a non-specialized high-school target group. We present a study of a mechanics course in such a new setting, addressing the tight curricular, material, and practical constraints inherent to it. A quasi experimental pre post design comparing a treatment group using MDET and a control group without (same content, lesson plan, and teachers) was used. The 19-week teaching sequence focused on conceptual learning and motivational outcomes, controlled by several predictor variables. Findings reveal substantial pre post learning gains for both groups (Cohen d = 0.9) and small gains for perceived relation to reality (d = 0.29). But no significant differences between treatments were found, indicating that MDET do not outperform conventional teaching under the given constraints. Moreover, no evidence of negative effects such as distraction or cognitive overload was observed, and little to no interactions with predictors such as gender or prior knowledge were found. In conclusion, MDET show considerable potential as an effective option for integrating technology into teaching, offering learning outcomes comparable to those of successful conventional teaching, but not better.

Estimands and the Choice of Non-Inferiority Margin under ICH E9(R1)

Authors:Tobias Mütze, Helle Lynggaard, Sunita Rehal, Oliver N. Keene, Marian Mitroiu, David Wright
Date:2026-03-11 15:33:59

Since the release of the ICH E9(R1) addendum on estimands, its application in non-inferiority trials has received far less attention than in superiority settings. A key conclusion from Lynggaard et al. was that the "choice of non-inferiority margin must reflect the chosen estimand." However, current regulatory guidance predates ICH E9(R1) and therefore does not reflect how the estimand influences the historical evidence and constancy assumption (assay sensitivity) used to derive the non-inferiority margin. This paper investigates the degree to which the non-inferiority margin depends on the estimand. Using simulated patient journeys in a weight-management setting, we illustrate how different intercurrent event strategies and variations in the intercurrent event frequency affect the estimand, and consequently the estimated treatment effect. These results emphasize that the historical treatment effect of the reference treatment versus placebo, and thus the margin $M_{1}$, is specific to an estimand and may differ even when trials formally target similar questions. We further illustrate the process of determining the non-inferiority margin using two examples in non-inferiority trials for a new theoretical weight management treatment. In the first example, we focus on the setting where the historical clinical trials use the estimand framework highlighting that even when they include the estimand framework, determining the non-inferiority margin can be challenging in case the historical trials target an estimand different from the one in the planned study. A second example highlights challenges when historical trials did not employ the estimand framework and the targeted estimand cannot be fully reconstructed.

GRACE: A Unified 2D Multi-Robot Path Planning Simulator & Benchmark for Grid, Roadmap, And Continuous Environments

Authors:Chuanlong Zang, Anna Mannucci, Isabelle Barz, Philipp Schillinger, Florian Lier, Wolfgang Hönig
Date:2026-03-11 15:06:53

Advancing Multi-Agent Pathfinding (MAPF) and Multi-Robot Motion Planning (MRMP) requires platforms that enable transparent, reproducible comparisons across modeling choices. Existing tools either scale under simplifying assumptions (grids, homogeneous agents) or offer higher fidelity with less comparable instrumentation. We present GRACE, a unified 2D simulator+benchmark that instantiates the same task at multiple abstraction levels (grid, roadmap, continuous) via explicit, reproducible operators and a common evaluation protocol. Our empirical results on public maps and representative planners enable commensurate comparisons on a shared instance set. Furthermore, we quantify the expected representation-fidelity trade-offs (MRMP solves instances at higher fidelity but lower speed, while grid/roadmap planners scale farther). By consolidating representation, execution, and evaluation, GRACE thereby aims to make cross-representation studies more comparable and provides a means to advance multi-robot planning research and its translation to practice.

AI-Enhanced Spatial Cellular Traffic Demand Prediction with Contextual Clustering and Error Correction for 5G/6G Planning

Authors:Mohamad Alkadamani, Colin Brown, Halim Yanikomeroglu
Date:2026-03-11 14:11:37

Accurate spatial prediction of cellular traffic demand is essential for 5G NR capacity planning, network densification, and data-driven 6G planning. Although machine learning can fuse heterogeneous geospatial and socio-economic layers to estimate fine-grained demand maps, spatial autocorrelation can cause neighborhood leakage under naive train/test splits, inflating accuracy and weakening planning reliability. This paper presents an AI-driven framework that reduces leakage and improves spatial generalization via a context-aware two-stage splitting strategy with residual spatial error correction. Experiments using crowdsourced usage indicators across five major Canadian cities show consistent mean absolute error (MAE) reductions relative to location-only clustering, supporting more reliable bandwidth provisioning and evidence-based spectrum planning and sharing assessments.

Scaling and Trade-offs in Multi-agent Autonomous Systems

Authors:Abram H. Clark, Liraz Mudrik, Colton Kawamura, Nathan C. Redder, João P. Hespanha, Isaac Kaminer
Date:2026-03-11 13:15:35

Designing autonomous drone swarms is hampered by a vast design space spanning platform, algorithmic, and numerical-strength choices. We perform large-scale agent-based simulations in three canonical scenarios: swarm-on-swarm battle, cooperative area search with attrition, and pursuit of scattering targets. We demonstrate that dimensional-analysis and data-scaling, established techniques in physical sciences, can be leveraged to collapse performance data onto scaling functions that are mathematically simple, yet counterintuitive and therefore difficult to predict a priori. These scaling laws reveal success-failure boundaries, including sharp break points. Additionally, we show how this technique can be used to quantify trade-offs between agent count and platform parameters such as velocity, sensing or weapon range, and attrition rate. Furthermore, we show the benefits of embedding an optimal path planning loop within this framework, which can qualitatively improve the scaling laws that govern the outcome. The methods we demonstrate are highly flexible and would enable rapid, budget-aware sizing and algorithm selection for large autonomous swarms.

eLasmobranc Dataset: An Image Dataset for Elasmobranch Species Recognition and Biodiversity Monitoring

Authors:Ismael Beviá-Ballesteros, Mario Jerez-Tallón, Nieves Aranda-Garrido, Isabel Abel-Abellán, Irene Antón-Linares, Jorge Azorín-López, Marcelo Saval-Calvo, Andres Fuster-Guilló, Francisca Giménez-Casalduero
Date:2026-03-11 12:57:56

Elasmobranch populations are experiencing significant global declines, and several species are currently classified as threatened. Reliable monitoring and species-level identification are essential to support conservation and spatial planning initiatives such as Important Shark and Ray Areas (ISRAs). However, existing visual datasets are predominantly detection-oriented, underwater-acquired, or limited to coarse-grained categories, restricting their applicability to fine-grained morphological classification. We present the eLasmobranc Dataset, a curated and publicly available image collection from seven ecologically relevant elasmobranch species inhabiting the eastern Spanish Mediterranean coast, a region where two ISRAs have been identified. Images were obtained through dedicated data collection, including field campaigns and collaborations with local fish markets and projects, as well as from open-access public sources. The dataset was constructed predominantly from images acquired outside the aquatic environment under standardized protocols to ensure clear visualization of diagnostic morphological traits. It integrates expert-validated species annotations, structured spatial and temporal metadata, and complementary species-level information. The eLasmobranc Dataset is specifically designed to support supervised species-level classification, population studies, and the development of artificial intelligence systems for biodiversity monitoring. By combining morphological clarity, taxonomic reliability, and public accessibility, the dataset addresses a critical gap in fine-grained elasmobranch identification and promotes reproducible research in conservation-oriented computer vision. The dataset is publicly available at https://zenodo.org/records/18549737.

Parallel-in-Time Nonlinear Optimal Control via GPU-native Sequential Convex Programming

Authors:Yilin Zou, Zhong Zhang, Fanghua Jiang
Date:2026-03-11 12:39:14

Real-time trajectory optimization for nonlinear constrained autonomous systems is critical and typically performed by CPU-based sequential solvers. Specifically, reliance on global sparse linear algebra or the serial nature of dynamic programming algorithms restricts the utilization of massively parallel computing architectures like GPUs. To bridge this gap, we introduce a fully GPU-native trajectory optimization framework that combines sequential convex programming with a consensus-based alternating direction method of multipliers. By applying a temporal splitting strategy, our algorithm decouples the optimization horizon into independent, per-node subproblems that execute massively in parallel. The entire process runs fully on the GPU, eliminating costly memory transfers and large-scale sparse factorizations. This architecture naturally scales to multi-trajectory optimization. We validate the solver on a quadrotor agile flight task and a Mars powered descent problem using an on-board edge computing platform. Benchmarks reveal a sustained 4x throughput speedup and a 51% reduction in energy consumption over a heavily optimized 12-core CPU baseline. Crucially, the framework saturates the hardware, maintaining over 96% active GPU utilization to achieve planning rates exceeding 100 Hz. Furthermore, we demonstrate the solver's extensibility to robust Model Predictive Control by jointly optimizing dynamically coupled scenarios under stochastic disturbances, enabling scalable and safe autonomy.

Cybo-Waiter: A Physical Agentic Framework for Humanoid Whole-Body Locomotion-Manipulation

Authors:Peng Ren, Haoyang Ge, Chuan Qi, Cong Huang, Hong Li, Jiang Zhao, Pei Chi, Kai Chen
Date:2026-03-11 11:41:32

Robots are increasingly expected to execute open ended natural language requests in human environments, which demands reliable long horizon execution under partial observability. This is especially challenging for humanoids because locomotion and manipulation are tightly coupled through stance, reachability, and balance. We present a humanoid agent framework that turns VLM plans into verifiable task programs and closes the loop with multi object 3D geometric supervision. A VLM planner compiles each instruction into a typed JSON sequence of subtasks with explicit predicate based preconditions and success conditions. Using SAM3 and RGB-D, we ground all task relevant entities in 3D, estimate object centroids and extents, and evaluate predicates over stable frames to obtain condition level diagnostics. The supervisor uses these diagnostics to verify subtask completion and to provide condition-level feedback for progression and replanning. We execute each subtask by coordinating humanoid locomotion and whole-body manipulation, selecting feasible motion primitives under reachability and balance constraints. Experiments on tabletop manipulation and long horizon humanoid loco manipulation tasks show improved robustness from multi object grounding, temporal stability, and recovery driven replanning.

Planning for isolation? The role of urban form and function in shaping mobility in Brasília

Authors:Andrew Renninger
Date:2026-03-11 11:16:31

Brasília offers a rare test of how urban form shapes experienced segregation. Built almost at once around modernist neighbourhood units, then expanded through planned satellites and informal peripheries, it lets us ask whether urban form turns mobility into mixing or into a more efficient engine of separation. We combine data on human mobility with urban morphometrics, amenities, road networks, along with enclosures and tessellations that capture segregation at the scales where access is structured: districts, neighbourhoods, blocks, and street-and-building cells. We find that segregation intensifies as resolution sharpens, from 0.282 at the district scale to 0.545 at the block scale, indicating that Brasília looks most integrated at coarse units and most segregated where everyday encounters are actually organised. Mobility softens home segregation for most users, but not symmetrically: poorer groups travel farther, while affluent groups remain the most selectively exposed. civic cores and mid-rise, mixed-use areas are the least segregated morphotypes, yet they occupy only a sliver of the metropolis. Elsewhere, rich lakefront suburbs and dense poor settlements reach similarly high segregation through opposite spatial logics. Amenities predict lower segregation, while barriers and enclosed residential interiors predict higher segregation. Built form explains more of this pattern than visit volume alone in the segregation models: integration is less a property of residential design than of shared destinations and porous connections. Planned capitals can build order without building isolation if they distribute mixing space rather than sequestering it.

Interleaving Scheduling and Motion Planning with Incremental Learning of Symbolic Space-Time Motion Abstractions

Authors:Elisa Tosello, Arthur Bit-Monnot, Davide Lusuardi, Alessandro Valentini, Andrea Micheli
Date:2026-03-11 11:10:49

Task and Motion Planning combines high-level task sequencing (what to do) with low-level motion planning (how to do it) to generate feasible, collision-free execution plans. However, in many real-world domains, such as automated warehouses, tasks are predefined, shifting the challenge to if, when, and how to execute them safely and efficiently under resource, time and motion constraints. In this paper, we formalize this as the Scheduling and Motion Planning problem for multi-object navigation in shared workspaces. We propose a novel solution framework that interleaves off-the-shelf schedulers and motion planners in an incremental learning loop. The scheduler generates candidate plans, while the motion planner checks feasibility and returns symbolic feedback, i.e., spatial conflicts and timing adjustments, to guide the scheduler towards motion-feasible solutions. We validate our proposal on logistics and job-shop scheduling benchmarks augmented with motion tasks, using state-of-the-art schedulers and sampling-based motion planners. Our results show the effectiveness of our framework in generating valid plans under complex temporal and spatial constraints, where synchronized motion is critical.

AdaClearGrasp: Learning Adaptive Clearing for Zero-Shot Robust Dexterous Grasping in Densely Cluttered Environments

Authors:Zixuan Chen, Wenquan Zhang, Jing Fang, Ruiming Zeng, Zhixuan Xu, Yiwen Hou, Xinke Wang, Jieqi Shi, Jing Huo, Yang Gao
Date:2026-03-11 10:24:20

In densely cluttered environments, physical interference, visual occlusions, and unstable contacts often cause direct dexterous grasping to fail, while aggressive singulation strategies may compromise safety. Enabling robots to adaptively decide whether to clear surrounding objects or directly grasp the target is therefore crucial for robust manipulation. We propose AdaClearGrasp, a closed-loop decision-execution framework for adaptive clearing and zero-shot dexterous grasping in densely cluttered environments. The framework formulates manipulation as a controllable high-level decision process that determines whether to directly grasp the target or first clear surrounding objects. A pretrained vision-language model (VLM) interprets visual observations and language task descriptions to reason about grasp interference and generate a high-level planning skeleton, which invokes structured atomic skills through a unified action interface. For dexterous grasping, we train a reinforcement learning policy with a relative hand-object distance representation, enabling zero-shot generalization across diverse object geometries and physical properties. During execution, visual feedback monitors outcomes and triggers replanning upon failures, forming a closed-loop correction mechanism. To evaluate language-conditioned dexterous grasping in clutter, we introduce Clutter-Bench, the first simulation benchmark with graded clutter complexity. It includes seven target objects across three clutter levels, yielding 210 task scenarios. We further perform sim-to-real experiments on three objects under three clutter levels (18 scenarios). Results demonstrate that AdaClearGrasp significantly improves grasp success rates in densely cluttered environments. For more videos and code, please visit our project website: https://chenzixuan99.github.io/adaclear-grasp.github.io/.

Recover to Predict: Progressive Retrospective Learning for Variable-Length Trajectory Prediction

Authors:Hao Zhou, Lu Qi, Jason Li, Jie Zhang, Yi Liu, Xu Yang, Mingyu Fan, Fei Luo
Date:2026-03-11 09:51:22

Trajectory prediction is critical for autonomous driving, enabling safe and efficient planning in dense, dynamic traffic. Most existing methods optimize prediction accuracy under fixed-length observations. However, real-world driving often yields variable-length, incomplete observations, posing a challenge to these methods. A common strategy is to directly map features from incomplete observations to those from complete ones. This one-shot mapping, however, struggles to learn accurate representations for short trajectories due to significant information gaps. To address this issue, we propose a Progressive Retrospective Framework (PRF), which gradually aligns features from incomplete observations with those from complete ones via a cascade of retrospective units. Each unit consists of a Retrospective Distillation Module (RDM) and a Retrospective Prediction Module (RPM), where RDM distills features and RPM recovers previous timesteps using the distilled features. Moreover, we propose a Rolling-Start Training Strategy (RSTS) that enhances data efficiency during PRF training. PRF is plug-and-play with existing methods. Extensive experiments on datasets Argoverse 2 and Argoverse 1 demonstrate the effectiveness of PRF. Code is available at https://github.com/zhouhao94/PRF.

The Asteroid Framing Cameras on ESA's Hera mission

Authors:Jean-Baptiste Vincent, Gábor Kovács, Balázs V. Nagy, Frank Preusker, Naomi Murdoch, Maurizio Pajola, Michael Kueppers, Patrick Michel, Seiji Sugita, Hannah Goldberg
Date:2026-03-11 09:50:50

As the first asteroid deflection test, NASA's successfully hit asteroid Dimorphos (secondary of the binary asteroid 65803 Didymos) with the DART kinetic impactor on September 26, 2022. To fully characterise the physical properties of the objects, and measure precisely the effects of this impact in the context of planetary defence, ESA launched the Hera mission on 7 October 2024, with scheduled arrival at Didymos in fall 2026. Among the core payload of the mission, the Asteroid Framing Cameras are two identical imaging systems that will support navigation and scientific activities, by acquiring images from various distances and observing geometries during the course of the mission. Built by ena-Optronik (Germany), the cameras match the requirements designed by the science team and will provide data that supports a wide range of investigations: hazard detection, system dynamics, shape reconstruction, surface morphology and mapping, and surface photometry. Each instrument is a panchromatic camera equipped with a 5.5 x 5.5 degree field of view, and an angular resolution of 93.7 micro-radians per pixel. The cameras shall provide the necessary data to address the mission requirements through a global mapping of the two components of the binary system at spatial scales of 2-3 m/pixel in the Early Characterisation Phase, 1-2 m/pixel in the Detailed Characterisation Phase, and 0.5-2 m/pixel in the Close Operation Phase. Dedicated flybys will bring the resolution down to < 10 cm/pixel on specific areas of interest on Dimorphos, such as the DART impact site and the JUVENTAS cubesat landing site. Here, we present the technical specifications of the camera, as well as the status of the calibration. We then summarise the planned operations in cruise and at the asteroids. Finally, we provide examples of the scientific investigations and products that will make use of the data returned by the cameras

Monitoring of slopes, rock faces and masonry walls in a 19th century public park: the example of the Buttes Chaumont Park (Paris, France)

Authors:Marc Peruzzetto, Isabelle Halfon, Clara Lévy, Florian Masson, Aurore Ramage, Gildas Noury, Daoud Benazzouz, Marina Kudla, Laurence Lejeune
Date:2026-03-11 09:47:06

Developed on former gypsum quarries, the Buttes Chaumont Park is a 25-hectare geotechnical complex that is unique in the world. After three years of heavy work to create, in particular, an artificial cave, a lake and an island, the park opened in 1867 and has suffered gravitational hazards ever since (landslides, rockfalls and sinkholes). The BRGM has worked with the Paris City Council since 2021 to characterize the geological and geotechnical context, identify major gravitational hazards, and monitor the evolution of instabilities in slopes and rock/masonry walls. In this context, the BRGM has proposed, defined and followed a geotechnical supervision scheme including four levels of monitoring: detailed quarterly site visits since March 2023, bimonthly tacheometric surveys (operating since December 2022), monthly manual gauges measurements (since January 2024), and automatic extensometers and temperatures measurements (since March 2024). The interpretation of the data allows to confirm and/or complement the gravitational hazard mapping that had been carried out in 2022. By analyzing the correlation between displacement measurements and meteorological conditions, we could also differentiate between seasonal/daily trends mainly associated with temperature variations, and displacements associated with gravitational processes. These results help mitigate risks in the Buttes Chaumont Park in its current state, and adapt works planned in the coming years to restore and secure the park.

Path Planning for Sound Speed Profile Estimation

Authors:Ludvig Lindström, Tadas Paskevicius, Andreas Jakobsson, Isaac Skog
Date:2026-03-11 09:40:45

Accurate estimation of the sound speed profile (SSP) is essential for underwater acoustic communication, sonar performance, and navigation, as the acoustic wave propagation depends strongly on the SSP. This work considers SSP estimation in a region of interest using an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) equipped with a conductivity-temperature-depth (CTD) sensor and an acoustic receiver measuring transmission loss (TL) from a sonar transmitter. The SSP is modeled using a linear basis-function expansion and is sequentially estimated with an unscented Kalman filter that fuses local CTD measurements with TL measurements. A receding-horizon path planning scheme is also employed to select future AUV positions by minimizing the predicted total sound speed variance. Simulations using the Bellhop acoustic wave propagation solver show that CTD measurements provide accurate local SSP estimates, whereas TL measurements are seen to capture the global characteristics of the SSP, with their joint use improving the reconstruction of both local variations and large-scale SSP behavior. The results also indicate that the proposed path planning strategy reduces the estimation uncertainty compared to constant-velocity motion, thereby enabling improved environmental characterization for underwater acoustic systems.

Learning to Wander: Improving the Global Image Geolocation Ability of LMMs via Actionable Reasoning

Authors:Yushuo Zheng, Huiyu Duan, Zicheng Zhang, Xiaohong Liu, Xiongkuo Min
Date:2026-03-11 06:24:10

Geolocation, the task of identifying the geographic location of an image, requires abundant world knowledge and complex reasoning abilities. Though advanced large multimodal models (LMMs) have shown superior aforementioned capabilities, their performance on the geolocation task remains unexplored. To this end, we introduce \textbf{WanderBench}, the first open access global geolocation benchmark designed for actionable geolocation reasoning in embodied scenarios. WanderBench contains over 32K panoramas across six continents, organized as navigable graphs that enable physical actions such as rotation and movement, transforming geolocation from static recognition into interactive exploration. Building on this foundation, we propose \textbf{GeoAoT} (Action of Thought), a \underline{Geo}location framework with \underline{A}ction of \underline{T}hough, which couples reasoning with embodied actions. Instead of generating textual reasoning chains, GeoAoT produces actionable plans such as, approaching landmarks or adjusting viewpoints, to actively reduce uncertainty. We further establish an evaluation protocol that jointly measures geolocation accuracy and difficulty-aware geolocation questioning ability. Experiments on 19 large multimodal models show that GeoAoT achieves superior fine-grained localization and stronger generalization in dynamic environments. WanderBench and GeoAoT define a new paradigm for actionable, reasoning driven geolocation in embodied visual understanding.

SUBTA: A Framework for Supported User-Guided Bimanual Teleoperation in Structured Assembly

Authors:Xiao Liu, Prakash Baskaran, Songpo Li, Simon Manschitz, Wei Ma, Dirk Ruiken, Soshi Iba
Date:2026-03-11 06:21:08

In human-robot collaboration, shared autonomy enhances human performance through precise, intuitive support. Effective robotic assistance requires accurately inferring human intentions and understanding task structures to determine optimal support timing and methods. In this paper, we present SUBTA, a supported teleoperation system for bimanual assembly that couples learned intention estimation, scene-graph task planning, and context-dependent motion assists. We validate our approach through a user study (N=12) comparing standard teleoperation, motion-support only, and SUBTA. Linear mixed-effects analysis revealed that SUBTA significantly outperformed standard teleoperation in position accuracy (p<0.001, d=1.18) and orientation accuracy (p<0.001, d=1.75), while reducing mental demand (p=0.002, d=1.34). Post-experiment ratings indicate clearer, more trustworthy visual feedback and predictable interventions in SUBTA. The results demonstrate that SUBTA greatly improves both effectiveness and user experience in teleoperation.

KnowDiffuser: A Knowledge-Guided Diffusion Planner with LM Reasoning and Prior-Informed Trajectory Initialization

Authors:Fan Ding, Xuewen Luo, Fengze Yang, Bo Yu, HwaHui Tew, Ganesh Krishnasamy, Junn Yong Loo
Date:2026-03-11 05:45:29

Recent advancements in Language Models (LMs) have demonstrated strong semantic reasoning capabilities, enabling their application in high-level decision-making for autonomous driving (AD). However, LMs operate over discrete token spaces and lack the ability to generate continuous, physically feasible trajectories required for motion planning. Meanwhile, diffusion models have proven effective at generating reliable and dynamically consistent trajectories, but often lack semantic interpretability and alignment with scene-level understanding. To address these limitations, we propose \textbf{KnowDiffuser}, a knowledge-guided motion planning framework that tightly integrates the semantic understanding of language models with the generative power of diffusion models. The framework employs a language model to infer context-aware meta-actions from structured scene representations, which are then mapped to prior trajectories that anchor the subsequent denoising process. A two-stage truncated denoising mechanism refines these trajectories efficiently, preserving both semantic alignment and physical feasibility. Experiments on the nuPlan benchmark demonstrate that KnowDiffuser significantly outperforms existing planners in both open-loop and closed-loop evaluations, establishing a robust and interpretable framework that effectively bridges the semantic-to-physical gap in AD systems.

Rethinking Gaussian Trajectory Predictors: Calibrated Uncertainty for Safe Planning

Authors:Fatemeh Cheraghi Pouria, Mahsa Golchoubian, Katherine Driggs-Campbell
Date:2026-03-11 04:42:49

Accurate trajectory prediction is critical for safe autonomous navigation in crowded environments. While many trajectory predictors output Gaussian distributions to represent the multi-modal distribution over future pedestrian positions, the reliability of their confidence levels often remains unaddressed. This limitation can lead to unsafe or overly conservative motion planning when the predictor is integrated with an uncertainty-aware planner. Existing Gaussian trajectory predictors primarily rely on the Negative Log-Likelihood loss, which is prone to predict over- or under-confident distributions, and may compromise downstream planner safety. This paper introduces a novel loss function for calibrating prediction uncertainty which leverages Kernel Density Estimation to estimate the empirical distribution of confidence levels. The proposed formulation enforces consistency with the properties of a Gaussian assumption by explicitly matching the estimated empirical distribution to the Chi-squared distribution. To ensure accurate mean prediction, a Mean Squared Error term is also incorporated in the final loss formulation. Experimental results on real-world trajectory datasets show that our method significantly improves the reliability of confidence levels predicted by different State-Of-The-Art Gaussian trajectory predictors. We also demonstrate the importance of providing planners with reliable probabilistic insights (i.e. calibrated confidence levels) for collision-free navigation in complex scenarios. For this purpose, we integrate Gaussian trajectory predictors trained with our loss function with an uncertainty-aware Model Predictive Control on scenarios extracted from real-world datasets, achieving improved planning performance through calibrated confidence levels.

Quantifying uncertainty in physics-based predictions of rare-isotope production cross sections via Bayesian-inspired model averaging across nuclear mass tables

Authors:O. B. Tarasov
Date:2026-03-11 04:36:32

Accurate prediction of fragmentation cross sections is essential for rare-isotope beam production, planning new-isotope searches, and designing experiments to study the most exotic regions of the nuclear chart. However, existing reaction models and phenomenological cross-section parameterizations often exhibit significant deviations over broad regions of mass and charge. In this work, a Bayesian-inspired model-averaging framework is developed to combine abrasion--ablation (AA) calculations based on multiple nuclear mass tables into a single statistically weighted estimate. For the calibrated systems, the model weights are assigned empirically according to the relative quality of fit to measured cross sections, thereby reducing systematic model bias while preserving the underlying physics content of the AA description. The weights are constrained using proton-rich fragmentation data for the $^{78}$Kr and $^{124}$Xe projectiles. The resulting parameter trends are then propagated to the $^{92}$Mo and $^{144}$Sm systems through a controlled scaling procedure. In the present implementation, the excitation-energy prescription is fixed, while the averaging is performed across nuclear-mass inputs; the framework provides both weighted cross sections and associated uncertainty estimates. Applied to proton-rich fragmentation, the present approach provides a practical basis for interpolation and limited extrapolation in regions relevant to rare-isotope production. The resulting predictions are used to assess the production of very proton-rich nuclei, and candidate new isotopes are discussed.

Safe Probabilistic Planning for Human-Robot Interaction using Conformal Risk Control

Authors:Jake Gonzales, Kazuki Mizuta, Karen Leung, Lillian J. Ratliff
Date:2026-03-11 04:19:44

In this paper, we present a novel probabilistic safe control framework for human-robot interaction that combines control barrier functions (CBFs) with conformal risk control to provide formal safety guarantees while considering complex human behavior. The approach uses conformal risk control to quantify and control the prediction errors in CBF safety values and establishes formal guarantees on the probability of constraint satisfaction during interaction. We introduce an algorithm that dynamically adjusts the safety margins produced by conformal risk control based on the current interaction context. Through experiments on human-robot navigation scenarios, we demonstrate that our approach significantly reduces collision rates and safety violations as compared to baseline methods while maintaining high success rates in goal-reaching tasks and efficient control. The code, simulations, and other supplementary material can be found on the project website: https://jakeagonzales.github.io/crc-cbf-website/.

Adaptive Manipulation Potential and Haptic Estimation for Tool-Mediated Interaction

Authors:Lin Yang, Anirvan Dutta, Yuan Ji, Yanxin Zhou, Shilin Shan, Lv Chen, Etienne Burdet, Domenico Campolo
Date:2026-03-11 02:57:55

Achieving human-level dexterity in contact-rich, tool-mediated manipulation remains a significant challenge due to visual occlusion and the underdetermined nature of haptic sensing. This paper introduces a parameterized Equilibrium Manifold (EM) as a unified representation for tool-mediated interaction, and develops a closed-loop framework that integrates haptic estimation, online planning, and adaptive stiffness control. We establish a physical-geometric duality using an adaptive manipulation potential incorporating a differentiable contact model, which induces the manifold's geometric structure and ensures that complex physical interactions are encapsulated as continuous operations on the EM. Within this framework, we reformulate haptic estimation as a manifold parameter estimation problem. Specifically, a hybrid inference strategy (haptic SLAM) is employed in which discrete object shapes are classified via particle filtering, while the continuous object pose is estimated using analytical gradients for efficient optimization. By continuously updating the parameters of the manipulation potential, the framework dynamically reshapes the induced EM to guide online trajectory replanning and implement uncertainty-aware impedance control, thereby closing the perception-action loop. The system is validated through simulation and over 260 real-world screw-loosening trials. Experimental results demonstrate robust identification and manipulation success in standard scenarios while maintaining accurate tracking. Furthermore, ablation studies confirm that haptic SLAM and uncertainty-aware stiffness modulation outperform fixed impedance baselines, effectively preventing jamming during tight tolerance interactions.

EmoStory: Emotion-Aware Story Generation

Authors:Jingyuan Yang, Rucong Chen, Hui Huang
Date:2026-03-11 02:44:25

Story generation aims to produce image sequences that depict coherent narratives while maintaining subject consistency across frames. Although existing methods have excelled in producing coherent and expressive stories, they remain largely emotion-neutral, focusing on what subject appears in a story while overlooking how emotions shape narrative interpretation and visual presentation. As stories are intended to engage audiences emotionally, we introduce emotion-aware story generation, a new task that aims to generate subject-consistent visual stories with explicit emotional directions. This task is challenging due to the abstract nature of emotions, which must be grounded in concrete visual elements and consistently expressed across a narrative through visual composition. To address these challenges, we propose EmoStory, a two-stage framework that integrates agent-based story planning and region-aware story generation. The planning stage transforms target emotions into coherent story prompts with emotion agent and writer agent, while the generation stage preserves subject consistency and injects emotion-related elements through region-aware composition. We evaluate EmoStory on a newly constructed dataset covering 25 subjects and 600 emotional stories. Extensive quantitative and qualitative results, along with user studies, show that EmoStory outperforms state-of-the-art story generation methods in emotion accuracy, prompt alignment, and subject consistency.

PC-Diffuser: Path-Consistent Capsule CBF Safety Filtering for Diffusion-Based Trajectory Planner

Authors:Eugene Ku, Yiwei Lyu
Date:2026-03-11 01:52:56

Autonomous driving in complex traffic requires planners that generalize beyond hand-crafted rules, motivating data-driven approaches that learn behavior from expert demonstrations. Diffusion-based trajectory planners have recently shown strong closed-loop performance by iteratively denoising a full-horizon plan, but they remain difficult to certify and can fail catastrophically in rare or out-of-distribution scenarios. To address this challenge, we present PC-Diffuser, a safety augmentation framework that embeds a certifiable, path-consistent barrier-function structure directly into the denoising loop of diffusion planning. The key idea is to make safety an intrinsic part of trajectory generation rather than a post-hoc fix: we enforce forward invariance along the rollout while preserving the diffusion model's intended path geometry. Specifically, PC-Diffuser (i) evaluates collision risk using a capsule-distance barrier function that better reflects vehicle geometry and reduces unnecessary conservativeness, (ii) converts denoised waypoints into dynamically feasible motion under a kinematic bicycle model, and (iii) applies a path-consistent safety filter that eliminates residual constraint violations without geometric distortion, so the corrected plan remains close to the learned distribution. By injecting these safety-consistent corrections at every denoising step and feeding the refined trajectory back into the diffusion process, PC-Diffuser enables iterative, context-aware safeguarding instead of post-hoc repair...

Robotic Ultrasound Makes CBCT Alive

Authors:Feng Li, Ziyuan Li, Zhongliang Jiang, Nassir Navab, Yuan Bi
Date:2026-03-10 20:37:24

Intraoperative Cone Beam Computed Tomography (CBCT) provides a reliable 3D anatomical context essential for interventional planning. However, its static nature fails to provide continuous monitoring of soft-tissue deformations induced by respiration, probe pressure, and surgical manipulation, leading to navigation discrepancies. We propose a deformation-aware CBCT updating framework that leverages robotic ultrasound as a dynamic proxy to infer tissue motion and update static CBCT slices in real time. Starting from calibration-initialized alignment with linear correlation of linear combination (LC2)-based rigid refinement, our method establishes accurate multimodal correspondence. To capture intraoperative dynamics, we introduce the ultrasound correlation UNet (USCorUNet), a lightweight network trained with optical flow-guided supervision to learn deformation-aware correlation representations, enabling accurate, real-time dense deformation field estimation from ultrasound streams. The inferred deformation is spatially regularized and transferred to the CBCT reference to produce deformation-consistent visualizations without repeated radiation exposure. We validate the proposed approach through deformation estimation and ultrasound-guided CBCT updating experiments. Results demonstrate real-time end-to-end CBCT slice updating and physically plausible deformation estimation, enabling dynamic refinement of static CBCT guidance during robotic ultrasound-assisted interventions. The source code is publicly available at https://github.com/anonymous-codebase/us-cbct-demo.

Delta-K: Boosting Multi-Instance Generation via Cross-Attention Augmentation

Authors:Zitong Wang, Zijun Shen, Haohao Xu, Zhengjie Luo, Weibin Wu
Date:2026-03-10 20:23:00

While Diffusion Models excel in text-to-image synthesis, they often suffer from concept omission when synthesizing complex multi-instance scenes. Existing training-free methods attempt to resolve this by rescaling attention maps, which merely exacerbates unstructured noise without establishing coherent semantic representations. To address this, we propose Delta-K, a backbone-agnostic and plug-and-play inference framework that tackles omission by operating directly in the shared cross-attention Key space. Specifically, with Vision-language model, we extract a differential key $ΔK$ that encodes the semantic signature of missing concepts. This signal is then injected during the early semantic planning stage of the diffusion process. Governed by a dynamically optimized scheduling mechanism, Delta-K grounds diffuse noise into stable structural anchors while preserving existing concepts. Extensive experiments demonstrate the generality of our approach: Delta-K consistently improves compositional alignment across both modern DiT models and classical U-Net architectures, without requiring spatial masks, additional training, or architectural modifications.

Three Hundred Quasars from the Couch: A first look at high-redshift quasar discovery with SPHEREx

Authors:Frederick B. Davies, Sarah E. I. Bosman, Arpita Ganguly, Eduardo Bañados, Silvia Belladitta, Daniel Stern, Javier A. Acevedo Barroso, Daming Yang, Joseph F. Hennawi, Feige Wang, Jinyi Yang, Xiaohui Fan
Date:2026-03-10 18:16:43

Photometric selection of luminous high-redshift ($z\gtrsim4$) quasars is plagued by contamination from numerous low-mass Galactic stars, reddened lower-redshift quasars, as well as compact luminous red galaxies. Confirmation of these rare objects thus requires extensive spectroscopic campaigns on 4 and 8-meter-class telescopes with relatively low success rates. Here we demonstrate the utility of SPHEREx spectrophotometric survey data for quasar confirmation with no ground-based follow-up required, "from the couch," applied to candidates from a purposefully simplistic photometric and astrometric Gaia+WISE selection down to low Galactic latitudes ($|b|\geq8^\circ$). Primarily from the detection of their strong broad H$α$ emission lines, we discover 87 new luminous $4.0 < z < 5.7$ quasars with median $M_\text{1450} = -27.5$, including 19 quasars at $z>5$, and recover 219 previously published quasars at $z>4$. We validate our SPHEREx selection with a 100% confirmation rate in ground-based spectroscopic follow-up of 29 of our new $z>4$ quasars, including 11 unpublished archival spectra. We also discover 203 additional lower-redshift quasars at $0.3 < z < 4$, consisting primarily of relatively rare highly-reddened and strong broad-absorption-line objects that are likely missed by traditional quasar surveys. Finally, we show that the Ly$α$ absorption breaks and H$α$ lines of luminous quasars are already detectable at redshifts $5.7\lesssim z\lesssim6.5$ after the completion of only the first of four all-sky surveys to be performed by SPHEREx during its planned two-year mission.

Probing Physics Beyond the Standard Model through Combined Analyses of Next-Generation Type Ia Supernova, CMB, and BAO Surveys

Authors:Srinivasan Raghunathan, Ayan Mitra, Nikolina Šarčević, Fei Ge, Corentin Ravoux, Christos Georgiou, Renée Hložek, Richard Kessler, Gautham Narayan, Paul Rogozenski, Paul Shah, Georgios Valogiannis, Joaquin Vieira, the LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration
Date:2026-03-10 17:59:20

Observations of Type Ia supernovae (SNIa), baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO), and the cosmic microwave background (CMB), which probe the late-, intermediate-, and early-universe epochs, respectively, provide complementary constraints on the expansion history of the Universe. In this work, we forecast constraints on dark energy and other extensions to the standard cosmological model by combining the SNIa sample expected from the Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), data from current and forthcoming CMB surveys, and BAO measurements from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). For the CMB, we use temperature, polarization, and lensing power spectra ($TT/EE/TE/φφ$) from South Pole Telescope, the planned Advanced Simons Observatory, and a CMB-S4-like experiment. We derive constraints on $Λ{\rm CDM}$ and its extensions involving the dark energy equation of state parameters $(w_{0}, w_{a})$ and the sum of neutrino masses $\sum m_ν$, using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling framework. We find that the LSST Year-3 SNIa sample can improve upon the DES Year-5 dark energy constraints by a factor of $\times2-\times2.5$, with the gains driven primarily by the significantly higher SNIa density in the LSST sample. Similarly, DESI-DR3 shows up to a $\times1.8$ improvement on dark energy parameters over DR2, driven largely by the substantial increase in low-redshift sample. Combining CMB with LSST-Y3-SNIa and DESI-DR3-BAO yields $σ(w_{0}) = 0.028$ and $σ(w_{a}) = 0.11$ for $w_{0} w_{a} {\rm CDM}$ cosmology with the results being largely independent of the CMB dataset. The constraints weaken by 10%-30% when freeing $\sum m_ν$ and spatial curvature. Moreover, the joint analysis of the three datasets can enable a $2-3σ$ detection of $\sum m_ν$.

TiPToP: A Modular Open-Vocabulary Planning System for Robotic Manipulation

Authors:William Shen, Nishanth Kumar, Sahit Chintalapudi, Jie Wang, Christopher Watson, Edward Hu, Jing Cao, Dinesh Jayaraman, Leslie Pack Kaelbling, Tomás Lozano-Pérez
Date:2026-03-10 17:59:00

We present TiPToP, an extensible modular system that combines pretrained vision foundation models with an existing Task and Motion Planner (TAMP) to solve multi-step manipulation tasks directly from input RGB images and natural-language instructions. Our system aims to be simple and easy-to-use: it can be installed and run on a standard DROID setup in under one hour and adapted to new embodiments with minimal effort. We evaluate TiPToP -- which requires zero robot data -- over 28 tabletop manipulation tasks in simulation and the real world and find it matches or outperforms $π_{0.5}\text{-DROID}$, a vision-language-action (VLA) model fine-tuned on 350 hours of embodiment-specific demonstrations. TiPToP's modular architecture enables us to analyze the system's failure modes at the component level. We analyze results from an evaluation of 173 trials and identify directions for improvement. We release TiPToP open-source to further research on modular manipulation systems and tighter integration between learning and planning. Project website and code: https://tiptop-robot.github.io

Denoising the US Census: Succinct Block Hierarchical Regression

Authors:Badih Ghazi, Pritish Kamath, Ravi Kumar, Pasin Manurangsi, Adam Sealfon
Date:2026-03-10 17:39:25

The US Census Bureau Disclosure Avoidance System (DAS) balances confidentiality and utility requirements for the decennial US Census (Abowd et al., 2022). The DAS was used in the 2020 Census to produce demographic datasets critically used for legislative apportionment and redistricting, federal and state funding allocation, municipal and infrastructure planning, and scientific research. At the heart of DAS is TopDown, a heuristic post-processing method that combines billions of private noisy measurements across six geographic levels in order to produce new estimates that are consistent, more accurate, and satisfy certain structural constraints on the data. In this work, we introduce BlueDown, a new post-processing method that produces more accurate, consistent estimates while satisfying the same privacy guarantees and structural constraints. We obtain especially large accuracy improvements for aggregates at the county and tract levels on evaluation metrics proposed by the US Census Bureau. From a technical perspective, we develop a new algorithm for generalized least-squares regression that leverages the hierarchical structure of the measurements and that is statistically optimal among linear unbiased estimators. This reduces the computational dependence on the number of geographic regions measured from matrix multiplication time, which would be infeasible for census-scale data, to linear time. We incorporate the additional structural constraints by combining this regression algorithm with an optimization routine that extends TDA to support correlated measurements. We further improve the efficiency of our algorithm using succinct linear-algebraic operations that exploit symmetries in the structure of the measurements and constraints. We believe our hierarchical regression and succinct operations to be of independent interest.